KYIV, Feb 4 - Following Russia's 2022 invasion, Ukraine's political scene, usually vibrant, was tranquil under martial law. However, there are signs of increased activity, as the U.S. seeks to end the conflict swiftly.
In the last week, one Ukrainian faction has accused President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's team of prioritizing elections over governance. Kyiv's mayor has accused a presidential appointee of obstructing his work, and opposition figures have been traveling abroad.
There are expectations of negotiations... The heightened activity and domestic political unease are evident, said Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst in Kyiv.
Amidst speculation of a return to politics, Reuters reported that the U.S. President's team aims for Kyiv to hold elections by year-end, especially if a ceasefire with Moscow can be agreed upon.
Former President Petro Poroshenko, a prominent opposition figure, has been seen meeting with numerous foreign officials. He denies any electoral motivation, stressing the need to focus on winning the war.
Despite these tensions, the European Solidarity Party has criticized Zelenskiy for allegedly attempting to exclude Poroshenko from parliament and for concentrating on elections rather than the conflict.
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has been active recently, engaging with EU officials abroad and protesting against the detention of a general involved in a failed defensive operation.
Further, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko accused Zelenskiy's circle of political scheming. In response, Zelenskiy's team redirected inquiries to the city administrator, who dismissed Klitschko's claims.
Fesenko noted that some political factions are mobilizing activists for election campaigns, although premature as Zelenskiy's camp exhibited no such activity. He cautioned against premature election speculation.
U.S. officials emphasize that no decisions have been finalized, acknowledging the evolving strategy towards Ukraine. Ukrainian politicians warn that holding elections before resolving the war could jeopardize national unity due to logistical challenges and the current state of displacement.
Zelenskiy plans to conduct elections immediately post martial law, enacted to bolster emergency powers against Russia. The law explicitly prohibits election proceedings.
The public's trust in Zelenskiy remains above 50%, according to polls, despite a drop post-invasion. Zaluzhnyi, former armed forces leader, has garnered attention as a potential political figure, amplifying the uncertainty surrounding future elections.
Anton Hrushetskyi, director of the KIIS survey center in Kyiv, acknowledged difficulties in determining political preferences amid ongoing conflict. Polls suggest a general preference for prioritizing war resolution prior to elections.